There has never been more at stake.
We are going to win this election and beat Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/rOgHtqUNlW
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 7, 2024
Allan Lichtman, a historian known for predicting U.S. presidential elections, warns Democrats against replacing President Joe Biden as their nominee. Lichtman has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections using a system of 13 historical factors. In an interview on “Fox News Sunday,” Lichtman said that if Democratic delegates rebel against Biden at the upcoming convention, it would lead to chaos.
When I first ran for president, I wanted to do three things: restore some decency to the office, restore support for the middle class instead of trickle-down economics, and unite our country.
We were told it couldn’t be done. But we got it done. pic.twitter.com/nIUiwBVy8G
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 6, 2024
He noted that while there are no significant signs that delegates would choose another candidate, the consequences could be severe. Biden won Democratic primaries in all 50 states this year, securing thousands of delegates. Lichtman argued that historical precedent shows replacing an incumbent at the convention leads to party turmoil.
President Biden: I’m optimistic about this country. I don't think we're a country of losers like Trump puts out. I don't think America is in tough shape. I think America is on the cusp of breaking through in so many incredible opportunities. This next term, I'm going to make sure… pic.twitter.com/mYCOLJGJC5
— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) July 6, 2024
This is especially relevant since Biden has met two of the 13 predictive keys: being an incumbent president and having no significant party contest this year.
Lichtman cautions against Biden replacement
Lichtman’s electoral prediction model includes factors related to politics, performance, and candidate personality.
The incumbent party needs to lose six of these keys to lose control of the White House. Debate performance, which some Democrats have scrutinized in Biden’s case, is not among the determining factors in Lichtman’s model. Lichtman also warned that challenging Biden could set up a scenario similar to 2016, which led to Donald Trump’s election.
An open seat with no incumbent running and a party contest could fragment the party’s unity. President Biden has committed to leading the Democratic ticket, and only a few Democratic lawmakers have suggested that he should pass the torch. The party’s decision toward unity or rebellion will be pivotal as the convention approaches.
