Could the Democrats win the election? That’s the question for debaters in @Crikey_News' Friday Fight – including our own @AvaKalinauskas.
If Harris can "win these critical states in November, she has perhaps her clearest path," Ava writes. Read it here👇 https://t.co/UYIJcTjDwd
— United States Studies Centre (@USSC) August 17, 2024
Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign has gained momentum in recent weeks, with polls showing her leading Donald Trump in key swing states and the national popular vote. Harris, who stepped in as the Democratic nominee following Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, has improved on Biden’s numbers and now holds a 54 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. According to current polling data, Harris leads the national popular vote race by a margin of 2.5 percent, a more than 6-point improvement on Biden’s numbers.
This is a bunch of good, honest questions for Kamala Harris, by @BenjySarlin, beginning with an obvious one that it's kind of wild we don't know: What's her top legislative priority? https://t.co/pt7JYcfLvz
— Ben Smith (@semaforben) August 18, 2024
She also leads by 1 to 3 percent in four key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The polls reflect that Harris has successfully consolidated Democratic voters who were discontent with Biden and has gained a modest lead among independents. Many voters view her candidacy as a chance to “turn the page” to a new generation of leadership.
Additionally, she is perceived as more trustworthy and intelligent than Trump. Despite the encouraging numbers, the race remains tight.
Kamala Harris’s dream start – and the Trump threat that still lurks. Latest column https://t.co/OW9geGlrl3
— Jonathan Freedland (@Freedland) August 16, 2024
A 3-point lead in the popular vote is within the margin for polling error, suggesting that a close November result could favor Trump in the Electoral College.
Harris gains edge in swing states
Voters trust Trump more on the issue of border security and are split on who would better manage the economy—a critical factor as inflation and economic concerns dominate the election discourse. Harris also faces potential voter defection from Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.’s supporters might have leaned towards Trump if Kennedy’s campaign had weakened. Harris needs to articulate clear contrasts between her policies and Trump’s to solidify her position. The upcoming four-day Democratic convention and the scheduled debate on September 10 offer platforms to do just that.
A strong performance in these events could extend her lead beyond the margin of polling error, reducing Trump’s chances even if the polls are slightly off. Early voting in many states begins soon after Labor Day, leaving little time for significant shifts in voter sentiment. The next three weeks are crucial for Harris’s campaign.
The race remains highly competitive, with significant implications for both campaigns. Harris’s ability to leverage upcoming events will be pivotal as the election date approaches.
