Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk reported their quarterly earnings this week, revealing insights into the future of GLP-1 medication sales. Novo Nordisk missed sales expectations for its weight-loss drug Wegovy due to supply constraints, causing its stock to drop 7%. However, Eli Lilly exceeded projections by 13%, reporting $4.3 billion in total sales for its weight-loss drug Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro.
This led to a 10% surge in Lilly’s stock and a 5% rise for Novo Nordisk, easing supply issues. Further competition is expected as new candidates move towards market debuts.
Earnings lead to stock surge
Tema ETFs founder and CEO Maurits Pot said, “We think this is going to be a four-to-six-horse race because right now you only have one device, which is injectable, going after one treatment, which is weight loss. But we’re seeing innovation in parts of the market where people look at oral instead of injectable options and applications beyond weight loss.
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Jared Holz, healthcare sector expert at Mizuho, emphasized focusing on the long-term market potential, stating, “Lilly is a reminder that it’s silly to look at either of these names on a 90-day basis when the market is north of $100 billion. At the end of the day, it is still the most meaningful market in dollars in all of pharma and biotech.”
Despite missing Wegovy sales, Novo Nordisk remains a market leader with 69% global GLP-1 market share.
However, Eli Lilly’s Zepbound has quickly become a blockbuster, helping the company overcome supply constraints and lack of coverage by large employers and the federal government. Emerging competitors like Pfizer, Roche, Amgen, Viking Therapeutics, and Hims & Hers are also poised to capture shares of this rapidly growing market. The future of GLP-1 sales appears robust, with substantial market potential driven by innovation from both established and emerging players.
