French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has opened the door to renegotiating President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial pension reform. In his general policy speech at the National Assembly, Bayrou expressed his desire to gain support from the Socialist party for the 2025 budget, which has reached a stalemate. The Socialist party has called for concessions on Macron’s pension reform in return for their backing.
France’s escalating debt level, which Bayrou referred to as a “sword of Damocles,” has added pressure to the negotiations. However, any compromises could distance conservative lawmakers and investors, potentially resulting in a no-confidence motion from a restless opposition. Bayrou’s openness to revisiting the pension reform represents a notable shift in French politics, with high stakes for both the government and the opposition.
The prime minister’s approach involves giving trade and employer unions three months to discuss the contentious changes within strict financial guidelines. Raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 for most workers has long been one of the most divisive issues in French politics. While the country enjoys a generous welfare state, policymakers are increasingly desperate to make savings as public debt accumulates.
Bayrou faces the challenge of navigating a deeply fractured parliament that emerged after last summer’s snap elections. His predecessor, Michel Barnier, did not even last 100 days in office. Bayrou, an ally of President Macron, already appears likely to face multiple no-confidence votes.
If the talks on the retirement issue fail, the pension age will remain unchanged, leaving future governments to address potentially urgent economic reforms.
Bayrou proposes pension reform talks
If successful, changes would be incorporated into the next social security budget bill or, if necessary, new legislation.
Socialist Party leaders have cautiously agreed to give the talks a chance. Olivier Faure, the party chief, stated, “I agreed to negotiate, but that means mutual concessions. The prime minister has opened a door.
That at least is a win.” However, Faure indicated that his lawmakers might still vote to censure Bayrou if they do not receive prompt assurances that the 2023 pension law will be scrapped even if negotiations fail. The hard-left France Unbowed party has brought a no-confidence motion against Bayrou, with a vote expected to take place on Thursday. The measure is not anticipated to pass, as lawmakers seem inclined to give Bayrou an opportunity to govern.
The real test lies ahead when the 2025 budget bill returns to parliament, potentially leading to another no-confidence vote in late January. The far right is likely to vote against the government, requiring Bayrou to secure enough left-wing MPs’ support without alienating conservatives and Macron’s supporters who back the pension reforms. Conservative parliamentary leader Laurent Wauquiez has already issued a warning, threatening to withdraw support for Bayrou’s government if he makes too many concessions to the left.
Bayrou emphasized the necessity of the retirement reform, citing France’s substantial budget deficit of 6.2 percent of gross domestic product for 2024. He accused lawmakers and leaders across the political spectrum of engaging in a “fatal tango” with debt that “brought us to the edge of the precipice.”
Both the center-left and conservatives appear satisfied for now. However, just as Barnier was ultimately ousted after attempting to build bridges with the far right, leaving France without a proper budget for 2025, Bayrou may also be removed if the moderate left’s mood shifts as he tries to reduce the budget deficit.
If Bayrou’s government falls, it would be France’s fourth to do so in the last year, potentially carrying disastrous consequences for French finances and the stability of the eurozone.
