The S&P 500 climbed 0.3% on Monday. The Russell 2000, which tracks small caps, started the week up 1.6%. The Nasdaq 100 ended the day flat.
The best trading period of Q4 for US equities started today, w/data going back to 1928. Goldman's Rubner has calculated that median S&P 500 return from October 27th to December 31st is +5.22% since 1928. The median S&P 500 return from October 27th to December 31st in election… pic.twitter.com/UwAgFPgPRC
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 29, 2024
Most major S&P 500 sectors advanced, aside from technology and energy.
The last time the S&P 500 fell more than 1% in November? 2008.
It has been higher 11 of the past 12 years.
Best month since 1950, the past decade, and in an election year.
The second best month the past 20 years (only July is better). pic.twitter.com/gkR7IbVnYd
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 28, 2024
Energy sector ETFs fell 0.6%, with companies like APA Corporation and Diamondback Energy losing more than 3% following a significant decline in crude oil prices after an anticipated Israeli strike on major Iranian oil facilities. Financials and materials sectors led gains among major S&P 500 groups.
Shares of mega-cap tech companies were mixed, with many set to report earnings this week. Rising longer-term Treasury yields reached their highest levels since early July. Similarly, the Japanese yen weakened against the dollar following the recent election.
Nov, Dec, Jan are historically the best three months of the year for stocks. pic.twitter.com/pOouQ6GvCp
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 28, 2024
In related news, Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, experienced a significant rally. More than 105 million shares changed hands, surpassing previous trading records and achieving a market capitalization of $9.48 billion. This surge in trading volume and value came amid a broader market rally.
#WATCH | Samvat to Samvat: A Year in Review ✨
How has the stock market performed since last Diwali? Join us as we explore the highs, lows, and trends shaping the markets over the past year.@AnshBhilwar #Diwali2024 #DiwaliSpecial #Samvat pic.twitter.com/080gDESzWZ
— ET NOW (@ETNOWlive) October 29, 2024
Keep an eye on significant earnings reports from major technology companies later this week, which could further influence market directions.
Optimistic outlook amid market volatility
Financial advisory firm Oppenheimer suggests that a post-election relief rally could be on the horizon for stocks, as stated in a recent report.
Despite recent volatility and market pullbacks throughout 2024, the firm maintains a positive outlook on equities. The strategists at Oppenheimer highlight that the market has navigated significant volatility this year. However, they note that the pullbacks experienced so far appear to be minor corrections rather than indications of a bear market.
Investors have often found reasons to take near-term profits without the fear of missing out, maintaining what Oppenheimer sees as a largely intact bull market. A key factor driving this optimistic view is the Federal Reserve’s success in managing inflation. The investment bank notes that the Fed’s commitment over 21 policy meetings to reduce inflation has helped support the economy and market sentiment.
Additionally, resilient corporate earnings, strong job growth, and robust consumer activity have contributed to expectations of a soft landing for the US economy. Looking ahead, Oppenheimer acknowledges the uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US presidential race. The firm emphasizes that the contest remains tight, with both potential upside and downside risks influencing the market as Election Day approaches.
Following the election, the market is likely to show some relief as the outcome becomes clear, which may then shift focus to the opportunities and risks associated with post-election policies. Sector-wise, Oppenheimer favors technology, communications services, consumer discretionary, financials, and industrials. The firm also anticipates that small and mid-cap stocks may begin to experience more sustainable rallies, especially following the Fed’s recent dovish policy shift.
Oppenheimer continues to monitor the evolving economic landscape, offering insights and strategies to navigate the complexities of the market as it looks towards the potential relief post-election.
