The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (CoGFA) recently released an actuarial analysis of a proposed bill to address issues related to state employees hired since Jan. 1, 2011. The bill, which did not pass last session, proposed four major changes to the Tier 2 pension system.
Segal, the analyst, examined each change independently and also tabulated the total projected impact if all changes took effect. The analysis found that updating the salary cap for Tier 2 employees to match the Social Security Wage Base would be necessary to keep Illinois in compliance with federal law. The other three changes represent concessions organized labor has been trying to reverse since their initial implementation.
Illinois pension compliance challenges
Given the opposing views on how to address Tier 2, the objective analysis provided by Segal through CoGFA is crucial for understanding the components of these discussions. CoGFA also released a report titled “2024 Illinois’ National Rankings,” which compares Illinois to the rest of the country in 23 categories, covering tax rates, revenues, government spending, and employment trends.
The report includes total dollar rankings and per capita breakdowns, allowing for fairer comparisons to neighboring states with smaller populations. Illinois’ state and local government expenditures in 2022 were $167.3 billion, ranking fifth in the country, but the per resident expenditure was $13,299, placing Illinois 18th, close to the national average. Illinois was also the highest in the Midwest, with comparisons to Iowa at 22nd ($12,716 per capita) and Missouri at 44th ($9,933 per capita).
The report’s 23 categories demonstrate the different perspectives through which raw data can be viewed politically. CoGFA, being bipartisan and level-headed, is a valuable resource for informed and involved constituents.
