From the Bloomberg article, “Expectation of Losing One’s Job at Record High in NY Fed Survey.”#economy #jobs #employment #EconTwitter pic.twitter.com/nz2qMr3qNb
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) August 19, 2024
Americans are increasingly worried about losing their jobs, according to a new survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released on Monday. The survey revealed that the expected likelihood of becoming unemployed rose to 4.4 percent on average, up from 3.9 percent a year earlier. This marks the highest rate in data going back to 2014.
The report highlighted a range of troubling labor market metrics, suggesting potential vulnerabilities.
BLS's preliminary benchmark revision shows that 818,000 fewer jobs were created from Mar 2023 to Mar 2024 than originally reported.
I take no signal about the economy from this for several reasons.
A short 🧵. (Also see nice writeup by @bencasselman https://t.co/wIugoDJn9x) pic.twitter.com/7kHDKbILZp
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) August 21, 2024
More people reported leaving or losing jobs, adjusted their salary expectations downward, and increasingly anticipated needing to work past traditional retirement ages. The share of workers who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks also jumped significantly to 28.4 percent, the highest level recorded since the data series began.
This is up from 19.4 percent in July 2023.
US workers worried about job security
These indicators suggest that meaningful fissures may be forming in the labor market.
NY Fed survey shows the share of individuals who reported searching for a job increased to the highest level in the 10-year history of the survey
Among those with jobs, the average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed also jumped to a series high https://t.co/bf1jTTj1I4 pic.twitter.com/yzHvcmJzyW
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) August 20, 2024
The report raises concerns as it emerges at a particularly tense moment, with economists and central bankers on high alert for signs of a downturn. The unemployment rate has climbed to 4.3 percent in July, a notable increase that rarely occurs outside of an economic recession. This rise in joblessness has put many on edge, despite the lack of corroborating evidence from other labor market data.
While jobless claims have increased, they still remain relatively low. Consumer spending has also remained robust, with reports indicating that shoppers continue to spend. The emerging discrepancies between various economic indicators highlight the complexity of the current economic landscape.
Experts remain vigilant as they watch for a clearer picture of the labor market’s direction.
