Donald J. Trump’s lead in the 2024 presidential race has widened following President Biden’s faltering debate performance last week. A new national survey shows Mr.
There has never been more at stake.
We are going to win this election and beat Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/rOgHtqUNlW
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 7, 2024
Trump leads President Biden among likely voters by six percentage points, 49 percent to 43 percent. This marks a three-point swing toward the Republican candidate from just a week earlier. The survey, conducted from June 28 to July 2, 2024, also highlights escalating concerns about Mr.
I beat Trump in 2020.
I’m going to beat him again in 2024. pic.twitter.com/o939Dclj1l
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 6, 2024
Biden’s age and ability to govern effectively. According to the poll, 74 percent of voters think Mr. Biden, who is 81, is too old for the job.
Rep. @AOC: President Biden has made clear that he is in this race. The matter is closed. Biden is our nominee. He is in this race and I support him. He is running against Donald Trump, who is a man with 34 felony convictions. Not a single Republican has asked for Donald Trump to… pic.twitter.com/MOvUu3VQU5
— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) July 8, 2024
This is a five-point increase since the debate. Mr. Trump’s advantage is broader among registered voters, with a lead of 49 percent to 41 percent.
Doubts about Mr. Biden’s age and understanding are prevalent across every demographic, geographical, and ideological group in the poll, including among Black voters and even those who still plan to vote for him. Since the debate, concerns about Mr.
Biden’s age has risen notably among Democrats and independent voters. Among Democrats, the concern has jumped to 59 percent, while 79 percent of independent voters now view his age as a significant issue. The poll also explored voters’ opinions on party nominations.
Regarding the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, a significant portion of voters preferred a different one, reflecting the growing discomfort with Mr. Biden’s candidacy. Similarly, the poll addressed views on the Republican Party’s nominee, with a majority indicating that they support Donald Trump remaining the party’s candidate.
These findings suggest a pivotal shift in the 2024 race, influenced heavily by perceptions of Mr. Biden’s debate performance and questions about his capabilities due to his age. After the first debate of the 2024 election cycle, former President Donald Trump has gained a narrow edge over incumbent President Joe Biden nationally and across key battleground states.
Trump holds a 3-point lead over Biden in battleground states and a 2-point advantage nationally. One significant factor in this shift is voter motivation. Republicans are more likely to vote in the upcoming election than Democrats, who show less certainty and enthusiasm.
The debate reinforced the unwavering support base for both candidates, with over 90% of Mr. Biden’s and Mr. Trump’s backers unwilling to consider the other candidate.
This rigidity has contributed to the race’s stability over recent months. Interestingly, while President Biden saw a slight increase in support in June following Trump’s legal troubles in New York, this did not substantially impact the overall race dynamics. However, the current polling implies an Electoral College edge for Trump.
Adding to Biden’s challenges, half of his 2020 voters believe he should not run in the 2024 election. When these voters lack confidence in his candidacy, they are less likely to vote or consider alternative options, including Trump or third-party candidates. Trump’s debate performance has further energized his base, with many Republicans feeling more inclined to vote.
Independent voters remain split, but Trump appears to have gained a slight lead among this group. The survey highlights that Republicans are more specific about turning out to vote in 2024 than Democrats, a trend observable both nationally and in battleground states, supporting Trump’s current edge. When factoring in third-party candidates like Robert F.
Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West, Trump’s lead over Biden nationally extends to four points. While Kennedy drew votes almost evenly from both major candidates, Biden lost slightly more support to Stein and West. Voter concerns about the candidates’ ages are notable.
Those who consider Trump and Biden old are more likely to support Biden. However, among those focusing solely on Biden’s age, Trump holds a substantial lead. Following the debate, many voters question Biden’s cognitive health and suitability, with seven in ten believing he should not run—though this is slightly fewer than immediately after the debate.
On personal attributes, Trump outperforms Biden in being perceived as competent, tough, and focused, though Biden is viewed as more compassionate. The survey, conducted between June 28 and July 2, 2024, surveyed a representative sample of 2,826 registered voters nationwide.
Trump’s widening lead over Biden
The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.3 percentage points. More registered voters believe former President Donald Trump would do a better job than President Joe Biden in handling two of the top issues of the 2024 campaign: the economy and immigration. Voters view Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, as more capable of managing national security issues and dealing with China.
The poll found that Biden received higher marks than Trump on just two of six key issues surveyed: handling race relations and health care. According to the poll, 51% of respondents said they now approve of Trump’s job performance when he was president from 2017 to 2021, compared to 41% who said they approve of Biden’s current job performance. He’s the real deal.
Under him, the economy was doing great. My life was a lot easier financially than it is now, and overall, I think he was well respected,” said Carol Crossland, a 56-year-old Trump supporter from San Antonio, Texas. The poll, a sample of 1,000 registered voters taken between June 28 and 30, found the 78-year-old Trump leading Biden 41% to 38%, a gain of three points for the former president since the last poll in May, though it remains within the poll’s 3.1% margin of error.
Independent candidates garnered support from 8% of voters, with three others receiving about 1% each. On Friday, Biden has vowed to press on in his campaign, stating in Madison, Wisconsin, “I’m staying in the race.” Nearly 60% of Americans view Trump as someone “who can get things done,” compared to 44% for Biden. This perception persists even though Biden succeeded in getting sweeping laws passed in a divided Congress to address climate change, domestic manufacturing, and historic infrastructure spending—achievements that Trump promised but failed to deliver in his four-year term.
Among the issues facing voters, the economy was deemed most important by 35% of respondents, followed by threats to democracy (21%), immigration (19%), abortion (9%), and a balanced Supreme Court (7%). Despite a historic jobs market and a booming stock market, 54% of Americans believe Trump would handle the economy better than Biden. “I feel as if Biden hasn’t pressed the issue enough about how bad the economy has gotten.
It’s not his main concern,” said Robert Sawyer, a 23-year-old longshoreman from Baltimore who considers himself an independent voter. “I feel like the economy was better under Trump,” he said, pointing to inflation under Biden. Registered voters also trust Trump more than Biden in terms of national security (53% to 40%) and China (51% to 41%).
However, Biden is perceived as the better candidate to handle race relations (51% to 41%) and health care (50% to 40%). Throughout his tenure, Biden has faced criticism from Republicans over migration at the southern border. Last month, he issued an order to turn away migrants when the border is overwhelmed after congressional Republicans blocked compromise legislation that sought the same goal.
In terms of leadership qualities, 63% of poll respondents said Trump has a “vision for the country,” compared to 54% who said the same of Biden. More voters, 46% to 42%, also said Trump would keep his promises as president. However, Biden fared better in other qualities.
More voters said Biden is honest and trustworthy (45% to Trump’s 33%), and 60% of respondents believe Biden has the right experience to be president compared to 52% for Trump. “I definitely support Biden. Trump has got to go. We have a black cloud in our midst,” said Steve Cattron, a 67-year-old moderate Democrat from Cape May County, New Jersey. “But I’d vote for him hands down before I vote for Trump. When someone can run as president and break every rule, every law, what does that do as far as integrity in our democracy?”
The poll also found that despite Trump’s job approval rating often hovering below 40% during his presidency, voters now have a more positive view of the Trump years.
Trump left the White House in 2021 with his all-time low approval rating, but the new poll found 27% of respondents today “strongly approve” of his past job performance in office, while another 24% said they approve. The country was running just fine four or five years ago with him, and I can only see him doing a better job than he did last time because he has four years of experience,” said Zach Anderson, a 30-year-old maintenance technician from Chicago who plans to vote for Trump. David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Political Research Center, noted that both Biden and Trump are disliked by a similar majority of Americans—57% of voters view Biden unfavorably, and 55% view Trump unfavorably.
“There’s no difference there. They’re both disliked equally,” Paleologos said. “And the tiebreaker is job performance.
There’s a small slice of people who will say during Trump’s administration—like him or not—I believe he did a better job.”
Some voters are discontent with both major-party candidates and are looking elsewhere. Megan Hollar, a 40-year-old educator from Cincinnati, Ohio, said she is leaning toward voting for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. “I feel like we are stuck in old thoughts and old ways, and we’re not really moving forward in the country,” she said.
Yet, the poll found that Democrats are far more open to replacing Biden than Republicans are with Trump. While 41% of Democrats want Biden replaced at the top of the ticket, only 14% of Republicans and 12% of Trump supporters said the GOP should replace him on its ticket. In a race against Trump, many Democrats and anti-Trump independent voters said they were happy to back Biden.
“Biden seems too old, and Trump can’t tell the truth,” said Steve Sutton, 55, from Seattle. “I’m a supporter of Biden, and I’m a supporter of anti-Trump.”
Shalia Murray, 57, of Round Rock, Texas, remains convinced Biden is the better candidate than Trump. “He’s honest, experienced, and puts people before party,” Murray said.
She expressed her concerns about voter apathy but is hopeful about Biden’s campaign. “I am concerned with the voter apathy in our area and across the country,” she said. I think people are more focused on age rather than on what the reality of our every day could be under the two different administrations.”
