One year ago right now we saw a huge surge in stocks hitting a new 20-day high.
The S&P 500 had been up a yr later 15 out of 15 times.
Make that 16 for 16 after today.
There were clues this was going to be a good year if you looked. pic.twitter.com/M8Jhzy2zhL
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) December 5, 2024
The stock market rally saw major indexes fall on Wednesday but come off lows as Treasury yields extended their retreat. Dow Jones futures rose modestly early Friday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, heading into a half-day session. Late Wednesday, President-elect Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he had spoken with Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum, who he says agreed to stop illegal migration over the Mexican border.
Sheinbaum stated that caravans had already been halted.
November nonfarm payrolls +227k vs. +220k est. & +36k in prior month (rev up from +12k) … strongest gain since March pic.twitter.com/nZmtOq9ugU
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) December 6, 2024
Trump declaring victory may raise hopes on Wall Street that he won’t proceed with his threat to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on his first day in office, along with a 10% additional tariff on Chinese goods. Dow Jones futures rose 0.3% vs.
fair value. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.23%.
From John Authers' daily note:
"In absolute terms, the S&P 500 has now set its 56th all-time high for the year, which is impressive. But US stocks’ performance relative to the rest of the world is even more remarkable."@opinion #markets #investing #investors @johnauthers pic.twitter.com/ReANK3fumm
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) December 5, 2024
Crude oil futures edged higher. Bitcoin rose to just above $97,000, moving back toward $100,000 after stopping just short of that mark on Nov. 22.
U.S. stock exchanges will close early on Friday, at 1 p.m. ET, with bond markets closing at 2 p.m. ET. Shares of chip-equipment makers rose on a Bloomberg report that the U.S. will impose new chip export restrictions on China, which don’t go as far as initial proposals. The stock market rally had a generally weak session as weak tech earnings and continued Nvidia woes contributed to the preholiday selling.
Still, the key indexes are all up for the week, hovering around all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 0.3% on Wednesday. The S&P 500 index declined 0.4%.
U.S. stock market rise continues
The Nasdaq composite retreated 0.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 edged up 0.1% but finished well off highs.
U.S. crude oil prices fell 5 cents to $68.72 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield sank 6 basis points to 4.24%, off 17 basis points so far this week. Nvidia stock fell 1.15% to 135.34, but came off lows to avoid closing below its 50-day moving average for the first time in two months.
Shares sank as low as 131.80, briefly undercutting a short-term low and flirted with an automatic sell rule from the 140.76 buy point. It was positive to see bulls defend the 50-day line, but NVDA stock still retreated Wednesday and is down 4.7% so far this week. Also, shares finished just below the 10-week line.
The AI chip giant has struggled since briefly popping out to a record 152.89 on Nov. 21 following earnings. Nvidia earnings were strong but Q4 revenue guidance was only slightly above consensus, though executives were bullish on the new Blackwell AI chip.
Nvidia stock rose slightly early Friday, moving off the 50-day line but below the buy point and 21-day line. The stock market rally is acting well, with a broad-based advance. Small and mid-cap stocks are leading, along with financials, homebuilders, and several non-tech stocks.
Nvidia and other chip plays are ailing, with software names also struggling recently. Investors have to follow what’s working, rather than stick to techs at all times. Running screens can be helpful.
By focusing on objective fundamental criteria and chart analysis, investors can filter out their own bias and open eyes to leading stocks and sectors. Investors don’t necessarily need to take much action now but can consider incremental buys or add-on purchases while cutting losers and laggards.
