The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, a three-year high. This increase comes after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates near a 25-year high earlier in the week. Employers added just 114,000 jobs in July, compared to the 175,000 expected by economists.
Federal Reserve under fire as slowing jobs market fans fears of recession https://t.co/RlVeV5643O
— Gunther Schnabl (@GuntherSchnabl) August 3, 2024
Wage growth also slowed, with average hourly earnings logging the weakest annual rate since May 2021. The rise in unemployment has triggered the “Sahm rule,” a recession indicator developed by economist Claudia Sahm.
Instead of spurring growth & creating jobs, President Biden and VP Harris have hampered businesses with over $1.6 trillion dollars in new regulations that hurt our economy. I will keep pushing back against duplicative over-regulation! https://t.co/0Qe6f5IWIZ
— Gus Bilirakis (@RepGusBilirakis) August 6, 2024
The rule suggests that when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points from its lowest point in the past 12 months, it signals early signs of a recession.
Since January, the rate has risen by 0.6 percentage points. However, some economists believe that the unusual post-pandemic conditions make conventional wisdom less useful.
Unemployment rises amid economic concerns
The Harris-Biden administration may be slow walking us into a recession.
Our country cannot endure four more years of their disastrous leadership.https://t.co/f8x6royTfT
— Tom Emmer (@GOPMajorityWhip) August 3, 2024
Families want a strong economy—not this. The Biden-Harris administration is an abject failure. https://t.co/0zu61fhfTY
— Rep. Mark Green (@RepMarkGreen) August 5, 2024
Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed hesitance to label the current situation as a recession, and some believe the U.S. may still achieve a “soft landing.”
The disappointing jobs report caused all three major stock indices to drop significantly. The Dow closed 612 points lower, the Nasdaq Composite shed 2.4%, and the S&P 500 declined 1.8%. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy and is closely tied to the job market’s health.
If layoffs increase, it could spell more significant problems for the economy. Despite the concerns, there is a silver lining. The weak July jobs report has increased the likelihood that the Fed will begin lowering interest rates as soon as September.
Lower rates would reduce borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards, potentially relieving consumers. Analysts at Citigroup and JPMorgan now expect a rate cut by half a point in both September and November. The following jobs report before the Fed’s September meeting will be crucial in determining the next steps for monetary policy.
